While the results of recently concluded assembly elections on the whole, have been hugely upsetting, demoralizing and disappointing for congress, they should serve as alarm bells for BJP too. Although, BJP may gloat over shocking election results for Congress and more particularly for severe erosion of perceived charisma of Gandhi family owing to crushing defeat of Congress despite high voltage and highly aggressive campaign launched by Rahul Gandhi(ably supported by his mother and to some extent by his sister too)for last two years, these results also give hardly any reason for BJP to celebrate and feel re-assured for the future.
Slide of BJP’s fortunes, which started in UP in 2002 continues and couldn’t be arrested this time also despite all the optimism of party’s leadership for a far better performance aroused by expectation of polarization of votes in UP in its favour as a result of “Minority Quota Politics” aggressively pursued by Congress party. Despite, much better performance put up by BJP under leadership of Khanduri, BJP couldn’t retain power in Uttarakhand. Although SAD-BJP alliance came back to power defying anti-incumbency trend in Punjab; however its individual tally dropped from 19 to 12. Only results of Goa seem to be motivating for BJP.
On the whole, the BJP has few reasons to feel happy about, however the failure of BJP in largest state of the country, electing maximum number of members of parliament should be a matter of concern for the party. It is important for the party to engage into introspection and analyze the factors that caused humiliating defeat for it in UP and learn lessons for the future. As mid-term elections appear to be a huge possibility now in the aftermath of recent assembly elections results, the BJP must get down to taking some very important decisions for the next parliamentary elections.
As these assembly elections results would suggest that voters like to know who they are voting for? What are his credentials vis-à-vis alternative choices presented to them? Whether they can deliver efficient governance vis-à-vis the issues agitating the minds of people. In UP, both BJP and Congress failed to present their clearly indentified leaders to voters. They presented host of leaders to the voters but not a clearly identified leader. In a nutshell, both the parties couldn’t give clarity to the voters, what kind of governance people would get, in the event these parties came to power. As a result voters remained disillusioned with both these national parties. In UP, People were looking for an alternative to Mayawati. SP could present almost a clear alternative(Mulayam/Akhilesh) and mandate of people went for them. In this regard , it may be noted that overwhelming influence of Akhilesh in the choice of candidates for SP, his principled stand on denying tickets to those having criminal antecedents (the same SP was earlier known for preponderance of such elements), drafting of Party’s manifesto in keeping with the needs of present times viz. emphasis on English education/Information technology etc coupled with his affable manners and matured conduct during the entire election campaign convinced the voters that SP deserved another opportunity.Similarly other clearly identified leaders in other states like Manohar Parrikar in Goa,Ibobi Singh in Manipur,Prakash Singh Badal/Sukhbir Badal etc. could win elections for their parties.Even BC khanduri in Uttarakhand, may also fall in the same category. Although, BJP lost the election under his leadership; however he could put up a very impressive fight(considering the huge disillusionment of the voters with BJP owing to graft charges against his predecessor) for his party and brought his party almost to the doorsteps of power.
Considering UP example for them, BJP must give a clearly identified leader for PM to the voters. Until now, considering the Prime-ministerial ambitions among many of its senior leaders, BJP has been postponing to decide the issue; however now they can no longer postpone this issue. It is good that they have alternatives for this position; however voters must know, in case they vote the party to power, who will be their PM, what are his credentials?In this regard, BJP must know that the individual, clearly identified for this role, must be perceived to be a man of integrity, with a mass appeal among the voters at Pan India level, having proven track record regarding administration/governance.The party’s dilemma regarding this exercise may be understandable as they might fear that such an exercise would make one man happy but leave all others nourishing Prime-Ministerial ambitions dissatisfied. However, they don’t have any choice. They must engage in this exercise right away as they should know that concept of collective leadership as BJP often talks about can no longer catch the fancy of the voters. In this regard, a sense of responsibility and maturity need to be expected of all those considering themselves to be in the fray for PM Position. They need to follow the example of Vajpayee and Advani. Although, in the mid of 1990’s, Advani was at his height of popularity, enjoyed support of RSS and held his sway over the party; however he realized that Vajpayee, considering his liberal image would be more acceptable among the voters/likely coalition partners and projecting Vajpayee as PM candidate would be in the best of interests of the party and he himself projected Vajpayee as PM candidate for the party. Today, the same broad-mindedness is expected of all PM Candidates in BJP. They must sit together and decide who should be projected as PM candidate in the best of interests of the party and then support him/her to the hilt to achieve the best possible outcome for the party .
Inability to forge a successful social engineering was another folly of BJP in UP. In the Post Mandal era, Parties, having predominance of support of Backward castes and dalits in two largest states, UP and Bihar, stand to gain. In the wake of Ramjanam Bhoomi Movement, BJP could attract and sustain support base cutting across caste lines for more than a decade in UP; however after that and especially after departure of Kalyan Singh from the party, BJP’s Backward caste base has been dwindling progressively and its effect is very much visible on its performance in UP during last three assembly elections since 2002. Considering UP example, BJP must engage into forging an effective social engineering in different states, considering peculiarity of social circumstances.
Considering its successful coalition experience in Punjab during the recent elections and in various other states like Maharashtra, Bihar etc., BJP must continue to use the synergistic effect of coalition politics to its advantage. However, during last few years, more and more parties have left BJP led NDA alliance so that now BJP is left with hardly two, Shivsena & Siromani Akali Dal as two credible alliance partners. Although coalition with Nitish led JD-U, also seems to be working fine with BJP for quite some time in Bihar; however given a choice and propitious circumstances for it , even JD-U would like to do a BJD on BJP and hence BJP can’t take Nitish led JD-U in Bihar for granted. Utility of coalition partners would be far more important for BJP during next parliamentary elections as even in the best possible outcome, BJP can’t come to power on its own. However considering the current count of alliance partners, BJP need to forge more and more alliances at regional level in the right earnest. If the party fails to successfully forge alliances at regional level in large no. very quickly, they would lose initiative to regional leaders like Naveen Patnaik, Jayalalitha Mamata Banerjee, Chandrababu Naidu etc. who have already started toying with the idea of fourth front government at the Centre.
Also, BJP must reflect the contemporariness in its approach, if it has to meet the aspirations of youth, who constitute the bulk of voters today. Considering the needs of the time, they must be more contemporary and inclusive in approach. They should not be seen to be supporting obscure, outmoded and misplaced sense of Cultural identity by supporting irrational and conservative moves like thrashing of girls found to be in Bars in Karnataka or supporting moves like Banning celebration on the eve of valentine day in Mumbai etc..BJP also must be found to be more inclusive in its approach and must rein in those(even though less in no.) perceived to be from their affiliate organizations, who, at times, in role of custodian of their religion try to unleash violence on people from other religions. Burning of an Australian Missionary in Orissa in 2009 and Kandhmal riots in Orissa in 2008 against alleged proselytizing activities of missionaries are case in point which is completely out of sync with modern outlook of BJP’S voters, who happen to be mostly educated, more modern and liberal in outlook. Just because of this irrational violence and consequent embarrassment caused to its coalition partner BJD in Orissa, they walked out of NDA alliance. Hence, BJP must be more careful that either it reins in or distances away from senseless and irrational acts of violence on people from other communities so that they continue to command the support of their enlightened voters as well as alliance partners. Also, they must see success of inclusive politics for BJP under Manohar Parrikar in Goa, where a large no. of candidates from minority community were elected on BJP’s tickets and the party , for the first time got a clear majority in Goa on its own. In this regard, it need to be clarified that inclusive politics need not mean dilution of its stand and follow the “appeasement of minorities” politics of Congress,SP, RJD and various other parties. Inclusive politics may mean more broadminded attitude and enlightened views vis-à-vis minorities.
Also, considering the fact that relatively more educated and enlightened voters of BJP has more exacting standards of BJP and hence BJP, as a party and its governments in states ought to be more consistent and careful in its fight against corruption. Any duplicity on the same might invite the wrath of its enlightened voters. Given the above attitude of its voters, BJP ought to avoid Kuswaha like experiments anywhere else and must act firmly and timely against all those perceived to be corrupt. Had BJP taken timely action against ex-CM, perceived to be corrupt and had BJP leadership not bowed to the unjust pressure of dissidents against its highly efficient and honest CM Khanduri in 2009, probably BJP would have retained power in Uttarakhand too. Also, recent killing of an IPS officer by mining Mafia in MP shouldn’t be dismissed as a sporadic occurrence rather MP govt must go into deep of alleged illegal mining in MP and take action against all those found to be aiding and abetting the same. If BJP doesn’t meet the exacting standards of its voters in its fight against corruption either in Karnataka,MP or in other BJP ruled states, BJP would have tough time retaining its support base during the future elections.
Also, in present era, at times, what you do and say become less important than how they are presented to the people by the media and hence devising a suitable strategy to counter Print and electronic media(especially english media), mostly pro congress and anti BJP, is also very important. Most of the print media /electronic media are owned by Industrial houses and because of their proximity to congress seem to be anti BJP in their News and Views. Recently, on the occasion of ten years of Gujarat riots, the way, most of electronic channels(especially English channels) went on showing images of Gujarat riots ten years ago and the way they went on showing interviews of Gujarat riot victims, blaming Modi and BJP for almost a week, it appeared as if they were UPA sponsored programmes. Similarly, only a few months ago, when Lokayukta report indicted Yeddurappa in Karnataka, most of the channels made huge uproar about the same for several days until Yeddurappa was made to resign by BJP; however, only recently when Yeddurappa was acquitted of those charges by the High Court , either this news item went unreported by most of the electronic media channels or they only made passing reference of the same. In the backdrop of such biased approach of media against BJP, it is very important to devise a suitable strategy to counter bias of the electronic and print media in more effective and meaningful way on a continuous basis.
In a nutshell, BJP must use the lessons of the recently concluded assembly elections in right earnest and make corrective actions in its policies, programmes and actions with all seriousness and without any further delay, if they seriously want to come back to power at centre after almost a decade. They must know that at the moment there is anti congress national mood and as the principal opposition party, BJP is likely to be the perceived beneficiary of the same, provided it learns from its mistakes of past and is willing to make corrective measures to rectify the same otherwise they must know that various regional formations led by Naveen Patnaik,Jayalalitha, Mamta Banerjee,Chandrababu Naidu,Mulayam Singh Yadav etc. are keying up for tapping into this anti congress national mood to install Govt at centre led by them.
No comments:
Post a Comment